"Future heatwaves will be longer and hotter" warn Bristol scientists
Heat-related deaths in England and Wales could rise up to 50-fold in the next 50 years
Climate scientists are warning extreme weather, storms and heatwaves will become more commonplace if we fail to reach Net Zero.
Heat-related deaths in England and Wales could rise up to 50-fold in the next 50 years as an ageing population is hit by dangerous climate change.
The warning comes as the west country recovers from a third heatwave in a month pushing temperatures above 30C, adding to concerns over the rising impact of the "silent killer" of extreme heat as climate change worsens.
"Extreme heat will become more frequent and more intense and that's a huge public health risk," said Dr Dr Ruby Lieber, researcher at the University of Bristol.
"We'll see changes in rainfall so winters are expected to get wetter, which will lead to more flooding.
"This is a huge problem, especially for vulnerable people, elderly people, pregnant people, they're at a huge risk during heatwaves of becoming very ill," she added.
Experts are calling for efforts to adapt homes and cities to the threat of extreme heat, with measures ranging from green roofs and shady urban forests to better building ventilation, air conditioning and more support for vulnerable people.
Scientists have already estimated that the first heatwave in late June was made 100 times more likely because of climate change, and the second was 2-4C hotter and tripled deaths across 12 European cities including London as a result of global warming.
"You've only got to think through the last few years in the UK," said Dr Harry West, Senior Lecturer at the University of the West of England.
"In 2022, we had a record-breaking heatwave and the first ever red warning with temperatures above 40 degrees.
"It's no coincidence that we are seeing an increase in these kind of major events both in the UK and and around and around the world.
"There's a lot of uncertainty in climate science but one of the things that we have a fairly high degree of confidence in, is that these extreme events are being influenced by rising temperatures and climate change."
The annual number of deaths from heat could soar from today's baseline of 634 to as many as 10,317 in the 2050s and 34,027 in the 2070s under a worst-case scenario, with 4.3C of warming and minimal efforts to adapt to rising temperatures.
Even under the most optimistic scenario - limiting temperature rises to 1.6C of warming from pre-industrial levels and major efforts to adapt to the changing climate - the annual number of deaths are projected to rise to 3,007 a year by the 2050s and up to 4,592 a year in the 2070s.
For comparison, the record-setting hot summer of 2022 saw 2,985 excess heat-related deaths - something which could become a "new normal" by the 2050s, the researchers say.
Senior author, Dr Clare Heaviside from UCL, said the research painted a "sobering picture" of the consequences of climate change.
"Over the next 50 years, the health impacts of a warming climate are going to be significant.
"We can mitigate their severity by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and with carefully planned adaptations, but we have to start now."