Lincolnshire smoking rates highest in region as new law could cut numbers decades earlier
Almost 15% of people in Lincolnshire smoke, nearly a third higher than the national average
New research from the University of Nottingham suggests England’s planned smokefree generation law could drive smoking rates down far more quickly than previously expected - a shift that could have major health benefits for communities in Lincolnshire, where smoking remains significantly higher than the national average.
Around 15% of adults in Lincolnshire currently smoke, compared with roughly 10.4% across England, with some of the highest local rates seen in Lincoln and Boston of over 20%.
Pregnancy-related smoking has also been a concern, with recent figures in North East Lincolnshire showing 7.9% of mothers recorded as smokers at the time of delivery, despite improvements in recent years.
Under the proposed legislation - part of the Government’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill - the legal age to buy tobacco would rise each year so that anyone born in 2009 or later can never legally purchase cigarettes, starting in 2027.
Modelling from the study predicts smoking prevalence among 12- to 30-year-olds in England could fall below 5% as early as the 2040s if the law is implemented - decades sooner than without intervention - helping to close long-standing health gaps in areas like Lincolnshire.
Nathan Davies, lead author and researcher in the School of Medicine at the University of Nottingham, said: “This modelling suggests the smokefree generation law could help stop young people from ever starting to smoke, accelerating progress towards a tobacco-free future.
"But how the policy is implemented will matter. Stronger enforcement, communication and stop smoking support in communities where smoking remains most common could help ensure the benefits are shared across the country and achieved more rapidly.”
The research team’s projections differ from the government’s published impact assessment because they use more cautious assumptions about how much the policy will reduce smoking initiation year-on-year.
The UK government’s modelling assumes a 30% cumulative annual reduction in smoking initiation based on the decline seen when the age of sale increased from 16 to 18 in England.
The University of Nottingham team’s central scenario uses a more conservative assumption of a 5% cumulative annual reduction, informed by evidence from international age of sale laws, alongside a scenario aligned with government assumptions.
Even under these more cautious assumptions, the modelling still suggests the policy could deliver substantial reductions in prevalence and large long-term health gains compared to no law. If declines are in line with the government’s assumptions, then the 5% prevalence target could be reached in the 2030s.