York study reveals increased patient mortality linked to ambulance crew sickness
Research highlights critical need for workforce resilience
A significant new study conducted by researchers at the Universities of York and Surrey indicates that unexpected staff shortages in ambulance services contribute to higher patient mortality rates within 24 hours of hospital arrival.
Analysing over 11 million emergency department attendances in England, the research reveals that heightened ambulance crew sickness results in a 0.78% increase in deaths, particularly affecting older individuals and those with serious conditions during winter periods.
The paper, published as a discussion piece, underscores the urgent need for resilient ambulance services, which play a pivotal role in the emergency care chain.
Professor Cheti Nicoletti, from the University of York’s Department of Economics, said: "Ambulance crews are the first link in the emergency care chain, yet their role is often overlooked when discussions focus on pressures facing the NHS.
“Investing in the people who deliver frontline emergency care is not simply about supporting staff. It is an investment in better outcomes for patients and a more resilient health service."
Giuseppe Moscelli, Professor of Economics at the University of Surrey, said: "When someone dials 999, every stage of the response matters. Our findings show that unexpected staff shortages in ambulance services can make the difference between life and death, particularly for patients who are already most vulnerable.
“This is about far more than workforce management. It is about ensuring people receive the right care quickly when every minute counts."
The researchers argue that strengthening ambulance workforce resilience should be seen as a patient safety priority. Measures that improve staff retention, reduce burnout and help services cope with sudden spikes in sickness could have a direct impact on survival rates, particularly during periods of peak demand.