Rivers in Swindon and Wiltshire more likely to suffer ‘whiplash’ due to climate change
A report has been released
Swindon and Wiltshire rivers are at greater risk of drying out in summer and flooding in winter due to climate change, a new report has found.
Researchers at the University of East Anglia looked at the effect that 2°C and 4°C of global warming would have on more than 700 British river catchments.
The scientists say that ‘hydroclimatic whiplash’ – a sudden switch between heavy rain and drought – can have a devastating effect on wildlife and humans, when rivers burst their banks and flood built-up areas.
Heavy rain after a period of drought means that more water flows into rivers than if it lands of damp soil.
Dry riverbeds then transfer water more quickly, wiping out natural habitats for small mammals, amphibians and invertebrates and, eventually, causing flash flooding.
One river particularly vulnerable to hydroclimatic whiplash is the River Ray at Water Eaton in the Upper Thames catchment.
Here, scientists predict that total dry–wet and wet–dry whiplash events increase from around nine events over a 30-year baseline period to around 12 events over a 30-year period under 4 °C warming.
Lead author Dr Yi He, of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA, said: “Our projections show sharper swings between heavy downpours and long dry spells, with river catchments shifting more suddenly from flooding to drought.
“These rapid shifts are making water management increasingly difficult, putting pressure on both flood defences and drought-response systems at the same time.
“As warming increases, traditional approaches to flood and drought planning may no longer be enough. Instead, region‑specific adaptation strategies will be critical to protect water supplies, infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities.
“Climate change is expected to increase both floods and droughts in many regions, so understanding how these changes will play out locally is crucial for managing water resources and preparing for future risks.”
The team’s findings will be published in the journal Earth’s Future on Wednesday, June 17.
In Wiltshire, river basins are managed by two Environment Agency strategies.
The Upper Thames and Kennet, in the north and east of the county, sit in the Thames river basin district, whose updated 2022 river basin management plan.
In the south, the Hampshire Avon and its tributaries, such as the Wylye and Nadder, are covered by the South West river basin management plan.
The plans cover everything from drought plans and flood prevention to habitat restoration and policies to ensure utility companies do not extract too much water.