Polls show Reform would take seats in Swindon and Wiltshire
That's if an election was held tomorrow
A new poll shows Reform UK would take parliamentary seats in Swindon and Wiltshire if an election was held tomorrow.
The latest polling from YouGov shows Reform UK would win 311 seats, with Swindon North falling to the right wing party. The Conservatives would lose Salisbury to the Liberal Democrats, and there would be an electoral shock in East Wiltshire, where Danny Kruger defected from the Conservatives to Reform two weeks ago.
The national projection shows Nigel Farage’s party just 15 seats short of a majority.
The multilevel regression and post-stratification – or MRP – poll is a statistical modelling technique that allows pollsters to combine large national samples with other data sources, such as census data, to estimate support for candidates in small geographic areas, making it particularly useful for predicting election outcomes.
MRP has gained prominence in recent elections for its ability to provide more accurate constituency-level predictions than other types of polls.
The seat projection was based on a poll of 13,000 UK voters. They were asked: “If there were a general election held tomorrow, and these were the parties standing, which party would you vote for?”
The results suggest Reform would add 306 seats to their tally, making a total of 311. Labour would lose 267 seats, giving them a total of 144. The Lib Dems would gain six, giving them 78 seats. The already-bruised Conservatives would lose a further 76 seats, giving them 45. And the Greens would win another three seats, bringing their total to seven.
Voters in Scotland and Wales were also given the SNP and Plaid Cymru as a choice.
Labour scalps in the Reform surge would include Yvette Cooper (Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley), health secretary Wes Streeting (Ilford North), energy secretary and former leader Ed Miliband (Doncaster North), and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner (Ashton-under-Lyne).
Big names from the Conservative Party, including Mel Stride (Central Devon), shadow housing secretary James Cleverly (Braintree), and former home secretary Suella Braverman (Fareham and Waterlooville) would lose their seats to Reform UK, while Jeremy Hunt’s Godalming and Ash seat would fall to the Lib Dems.
Locally, the projections suggest:
In Swindon North, Will Stone (Labour) would lose his seat to Reform UK, who would secure 30 per cent of the constituency vote compared to his 26 per cent.
In Swindon South, Heidi Alexander (Labour) would hold on to her seat with 31 per cent of the vote compared to Reform’s 24.
In Chippenham, Sarah Gibson (Liberal Democrat) would hold on to her seat with 43 per cent of the vote, with Reform on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 20.
In East Wiltshire Danny Kruger, who defected to Reform UK two weeks ago, could hang on to his seat, winning 28 per cent of the vote, with the Conservatives also polling at 28.
In Melksham and Devizes, Brian Mathew (Liberal Democrat) would be returned with 37 per cent of the vote compared to Reform’s 24 per cent and the Conservatives’ 23.
In Salisbury, John Glen (Conservative) would lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats, securing 29 per cent of the vote to the Conservatives’ 25 and Reform’s 22.
In the South Cotswolds, part of which covers north Wiltshire, Roz Savage (Liberal Democrat) would retain her seat with 42 per cent of the vote, compared with the 22 per cent enjoyed by both Reform and the Conservatives.
And in South West Wiltshire, Reform would unseat Conservative Andrew Murrison, winning 31 per cent of the vote compared to the Conservatives’ 25.
The latest date on which the next General Election can be held is August 2029. The ability to request a dissolution of parliament and call a general election lies with the prime minister, Keir Starmer, and he is required to give 25 working days’ notice.