Oxfordshire headteacher warns tighter budgets could lead to redundancies
A new report predicts schools could face increased costs
A headteacher from Oxfordshire is warning that increased costs and tighter budgets could mean fewer staff and redundancies for many state schools in England.
It comes as a new report published today predicts that mainstream schools across the country could face "very tight" budgets, as rising costs are likely to outstrip the growth in school funding.
“It’s very bad for the morale of staff"
School costs could rise by around 3.6% in 2025/26 if the pay review body follows the Government's recommendation for a 2.8% pay award for teachers in 2025, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
The annual report, funded by Nuffield Foundation, concluded that "schools might struggle to cover their costs without making savings".
Rob Pavey, Headteacher of Cheney School in Headington, Oxford, said: “It’s going to start meaning that there are going to have to be redundancies, staff cuts, restructures and all of that is really disruptive.
“It’s very bad for the morale of staff and of course, with fewer staff in school then it has an immediate knock-on effect to services to pupils and class sizes.”
He added: "You feel it in staff first of all, because 80% of a school’s budget is staffing. So, if you’re losing teachers, it feeds through to the kids because even if they don’t understand it, they feel it.”
The report on education spending in England estimates that mainstream school funding per pupil will grow by 2.8% in cash terms in 2025/26 - which it’s called a "small" real-terms rise compared to inflation.
"If these projections are accurate, then core school budgets will feel very tight in 2025/26," the IFS said.
Mr Pavey said: “Things are not a disaster, but they are really tight. There isn’t any luxury spending on staff, equipment or refurbishing buildings.”
'Some schools are facing difficulties making budgets add up'
The researchers added that around half of the rise in school funding between 2019 and 2024 has been absorbed by the rising costs of special educational needs (SEN) provision.
Colleges and sixth forms also face "financial uncertainty and challenges" as they must accommodate a growing student population, the report said.
Researchers from estimate college funding per student aged 16-18 in 2025 is still around 11% lower in real terms than in 2010, and school sixth-form funding per student is around 23% lower.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary at school leaders' union NAHT, said: "There is no doubt that school budgets remain under tremendous pressure.
"We know that some schools are facing real difficulties in making budgets add up and many school leaders - who have already cut operations to the bone - remain worried about the outlook for next year.
"It's vital that this is recognised and addressed in the spending review if schools are to be spared further unpalatable decisions like cutting staff and curriculum resources which make it harder for them to offer children a first-rate education."
DfE: "We are determined to fix the foundations"
A Department for Education (DfE) spokesperson said: "One of the missions of our plan for change is to give children the best start to life.
"This was built upon the steps set out at the Budget which increased school funding to almost £63.9 billion in financial year 2025-26, including £1 billion for children and young people with high needs.
"We are determined to fix the foundations of the education system that we inherited and will work with schools and local authorities to ensure there is a fair education funding system that directs public money to where it is needed to help children achieve and thrive."