Oxford research links drought to increased sexual violence among adolescents in Southern Africa
Study highlights impact of climate change on children's safety
Research from Oxford Martin School - part of the University of Oxford - suggests that drought conditions in Southern Africa are linked to a rise in violence against adolescents.
The study, led by Dr Bothaina Eltigani, found that exposure to drought over the past year might contribute to a 46% increase in risks of sexual, emotional, and physical violence among adolescents.
Using data from over 20,000 young people aged 13 to 24 in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho, the study indicates that girls, young women, older adolescents, and individuals residing in rural areas may be most at risk during drought conditions.
Climate change concerns
Water availability in Southern Africa is projected to decline by 30% by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The study presents concerns that these environmental shifts may exacerbate poverty, food insecurity and distress, driving harmful practices like child marriage and forced migration.
Data from UNICEF states that 79 million girls in sub-Saharan Africa experience sexual violence before age 18, and the report suggests that climate changes are intensifying these vulnerabilities for the region's 226 million adolescents.
Dr Bothaina Eltigani, a researcher at the Department of Social Policy and Intervention, said: “As a doctor in Sudan, I saw how drought and water scarcity place enormous strain on families – especially in rural communities, where the burden is greatest and the risks to young people’s safety often go unseen.”
Findings from the study
The study identifies notable risks for adolescents under drought conditions, including:
- A 46% rise in sexual violence by non-partners
- A 51% increase in emotional violence by partners, with a 73% increase for non-partner violence
- A 39% increase in physical violence by partners and 41% by non-partners
- Higher risks for girls, older adolescents, and rural areas under severe drought conditions
Recommendations for action
Based on their findings, the researchers recommend integrating violence prevention strategies into climate resilience and adaptation efforts.
With climate change expected to heighten the frequency and severity of droughts, they advocate for proactive measures to protect vulnerable populations.