Violence amongst young people could be contagious, Cambridge study finds
More than 200,000 crimes reported in the county were analysed
A study by Cambridge University suggests violent crime amongst young people may spread because of how social they are.
Researchers at the University's Violence Research Centre analysed a dataset from Cambridgeshire Police covering more than 200,000 crime events between March 2018 and October 2021.
Out of the 6,000 people aged 10 to 18 suspected of committing an offence that were included in the study, 42% of these suspects were recorded alongside at least one other person in a crime event of any type.
While the top 5% most connected young people, by number of co-suspects, were almost five times more likely to carry a knife than the average youth suspect, according to the analysis.
“The study has also shown that violence may be ‘contagious’ – spreading through social connections in ways that only become visible when relationships are modelled explicitly," the study's authors said.
“Further work on the exact mechanisms underlying the spread of violence is needed."
Most connected suspects likely to be victim of crime
Experts found the top 5% most connected young people were almost three times more likely to commit violent crime, seven times more likely to commit robberies and nine times more likely to be involved in organised crime than the wider youth suspect population.
The research also showed that super-connected young people were far more likely to become a victim of knife violence themselves, while nearly 60% of young victims of knife-related injury were suspects in another offence.
The team behind the study said that statistically mapping co-offender data from across police databases can reveal the young people more likely to be responsible for the most serious violent crime, as well as those most likely to be victimised.
'Scoring system'
Researchers say this approach could lead to a new “scoring system”, enabling police and social services to prioritise targeted intervention programmes for those teenagers in the highest-risk criminal environments who are most likely to act violently.
“Traditional approaches treat young offenders in isolation, focusing on individual risk factors such as age, background and previous behaviour," Professor Paolo Campana, lead author from Cambridge University’s Institute of Criminology, said:
“In reality, we are missing a crucial layer, as youth violence is deeply social, driven by relationships and peer groups.
“Mapping co-offender networks using police records could help agencies identify and engage with young people at greatest risk of inflicting violence and becoming victims."
Mr Campana said finding out more about when young people first become involved in criminal networks regardless of the initial offence "could prevent loss of life down the line".